200?
I think 200 is almost possible. I thought that was the case with Chelan County a few years back and ended up at 197. I feel like the formula I have been working with isn't half-bad. Back in 2015, I described the codes, and some expectations in Mason County. Basically, for the approach I've been taking (getting out about once a month and birding the wheels off of the place) I can expect a few things.
- all of the code 1 birds
- all but a couple code 2 birds
- about 80 percent of the code 3 birds
- 5-10 code 4 and 5 birds
I'm working from this checklist in Douglas County. Honestly, one of the really fun things about this whole process is helping to change some of the codes. The abundance, or likelihood of finding a given bird, is coded by the folks at Washington Birder, and they do take input from people familiar with an area if it seems like a bird is far more common or uncommon than stated in the list. I'm only there for a year, but there are definitely some cases where I've missed Code 1 birds, or found code 3 birds quite often without trying. It all goes into the coding decisions.
For Douglas, this is 93 code 1 birds, 64 code 2 birds (so... 62, perhaps?), 49 code 3 birds (80 percent of 50 is 40 . . I'll take the under, and say I'll get 39 of them?), 47 code 4 birds, and 64 code 5 birds.
93+62+39 = 194. So. . . 6 other birds? I have to admit, there are an awful lot more of those higher coded birds here, so I do have some optimism. Code 4 birds tend to be my favorite. Why?
Code 1 birds are pretty easy. They'll add up over the course of the year, naturally.
Code 2 birds are exactly the same. Except for the two that I miss. Brown Creeper in Chelan. . . Tundra Swan in Lewis. . . Actually, they are admittedly fun too. I have a sense of humor about these failures.
Code 3 birds are fine. They're work, for sure, and that work pays off eventually with a lot of birds. If I miss some, there's nothing to feel bad about.
Code 4 though. For these birds, there's a pattern of occurrence - some places where birds have shown up at least 5 times, but not quite every year. I enjoy the uncertainty of these, and the exploration that they inspire. I believe in my heart of hearts that there are California Quail in Mason County as I type this, for example. I've been out on a couple trips exploring the silliest places to look for them. Having a higher number of code 4 birds sitting on the Douglas list should make the year fun.
Code 5 birds. I'll be honest here. These are less interesting to me! They're out of place, so they don't add as much to my understanding of the place the way that all of the others do. If something crazy shows up, of course it's always a spectacle, and people will hop in their cars for the rarity. These years just have a different focus for me.
But I do want a California Scrub-Jay. . .
Organization
This year, I've been preparing by scribbling in notebooks, not going after the birds by code as much as by type of bird. To start the year, am I giving myself good chances to see a lot of ducks? A lot of owls? A lot of gallinaceous birds?
Somehow this turned into a "how many birds do I think I could find in this month or that month" kind of thing. There may have been more optimism on that end, and I ended up with a number just over 200 again.
There are a few birds that would be life birds, or new ones in the state for me: Gyrfalcon (code 3), Sharp-tailed Grouse (code 3. . . but their habitat got demolished by fire), and Blue Jay (code 4, but I might have a lead. . .) are the most likely new birds for me.
Not about the numbers at all
There are a couple of weird truths that I've run into during these years. One is that it's not about the birds. That's got to be a crazy statement, but I can explain. The other related truth is that it's not about the numbers either! It's about time and place. For example, the Waterville Plateau in winter. I've been up there once with the family, kind of vaguely running after Snowy Owls, but I've never *explored* it on my own.
Or places like this:
I'm going there to look for Wild Turkeys at some point. Yeah, there's other points, but it looks like a little pocket with a regular population. Where is that? It's up by. . . um. . . Jeez, Grand Couleee Dam is about as close as you could get to a notable place nearby. It's a corner of the county I'd never have a reason to visit - no reason that is obvious to me! But now I have a reason. Turkeys.
This is really what the year is about. If it was just birds and numbers. . . there would be much better ways to do this! Just go back to the same 3-4 Good Spots over and over and chase other people's birds at those spots and wait for it to add up. There's other birds, surely, that could sum up the year, but I like the way turkeys just did it there. Turkeys will be a thing - I promise.
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